1. Fact-Finding and Cost Recalculation

When factories reopened after CNY, most entered recalculation mode.

Export VAT rebates for vape-related products are set to end on April 1, 2026. At the same time:

  <1>Battery export rebate rates have been reduced

  <2>Raw material and precious metal prices have been rising since December 2025

  <3>New supplier quotations are being updated

Before announcing any pricing changes, manufacturers need to confirm:

  <1>Updated battery costs

  <2>Material restocking prices

  <3>Margin sustainability under the new structure

Rushing into announcements too early could create misalignment later. Many suppliers are choosing to calculate carefully before speaking publicly.

2. Market Positioning and Competitive Timing

In highly competitive hardware markets, few companies want to move first.

Large manufacturers often set the tone. Smaller and mid-sized factories may wait to observe:

  <1>How major players communicate adjustments

  <2>Whether increases are immediate or phased

  <3>How buyers react

This is typical second-mover behavior in price-sensitive industries.

Silence can simply mean:

“Let’s see how the market stabilizes before making formal adjustments.”

3. Temporary Inventory Buffer

Many suppliers still have:

  <1>Pre-policy raw materials

  <2>Battery stock purchased under earlier rebate structures

  <3>Orders scheduled before the April 1 declaration cutoff

This creates a short-term buffer in Q1 2026.

The true pricing shift is more likely to become visible once:

  <1>New battery shipments are invoiced under updated rates

  <2>Raw materials are replenished at higher prices

  <3>Export declarations fall after April 1

4. Relationship Management Considerations

Immediately after CNY, buyers are also restarting operations:

  <1>Budget reviews

  <2>Q2 planning

  <3>Contract negotiations

Announcing aggressive pricing adjustments too early may disrupt planning cycles.

Some suppliers may be choosing controlled communication over sudden changes.

5. What the Silence Actually Signals

The current quiet period likely indicates:

  <1>Internal cost modeling is ongoing

  <2>Industry players are aligning strategy

  <3>Q1 shipments still reflect old cost structures

  <4>A gradual repricing cycle may emerge closer to late Q1 or early Q2

Silence is not the absence of impact.

It is often the transition phase before structural adjustments become visible.

Bottom Line

The vape industry’s post-CNY quiet phase should not be mistaken for policy reversal or cost absorption.

It reflects a market preparing for:

  <1>A new export tax baseline

  <2>Adjusted battery economics

  <3>Ongoing raw material cost pressure

As April approaches, pricing clarity is likely to increase.